Voyage Planning in a Changing World

In recent years, global weather conditions have seen major changes especially in the location, frequency, strength and extra-seasonal occurrence of tropical cyclones, but also in the inconsistency of trade winds on some of the most frequented sailing routes. Sailors planning to go on a long voyage are rightly concerned about how these changes may affect their plans.

I have been monitoring global weather conditions since the 1980s, both for my own interest and to update my various books. Another valuable source has been the findings of surveys among long-distance sailors. A most recent survey was conducted among 65 sailors on their views on climate change and its effects on future voyages. All of them are active sailors with more than half having completed at least one circumnavigation. Their observations are backed by comments from forecasters, marine insurers and boat builders.

The focus of the second part of the presentation is on planning a future voyage by taking into account all those factors, and bring the ship and its crew safely home.